SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 21 21:23:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 21 21:23:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime will overspread the CONUS on Sunday, with a pronounced mid-level trough poised to traverse the U.S./Canada border as a smaller mid-level impulse progresses along the Gulf Coast. A statically stable airmass will be in place over most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. Scant elevated buoyancy will accompany the Gulf Coast trough, mainly over southern LA and immediate surrounding areas. Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected to be in progress at the start of the period (12Z Sunday), and may continue into the afternoon, until the elevated buoyancy is shunted offshore. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Fire weather concerns remain limited for tomorrow based on recent fuel analyses and guidance, including across central NM where ensembles suggest the probability for elevated conditions is low. Elevated conditions may emerge within the downslope flow regime of southern/southeast WY, but fuel conditions are not supportive of a robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, winds will shift to more southerly, bringing warm and dry conditions back to the Southern Plains. However, surface winds will be weak and limit and potential for wildfire spread. A localized region of Elevated fire-weather conditions could occur in portions of central New Mexico, where warm and dry downslope winds are forecast to occur. However, at this time, winds are expected to be below Elevated threshold criteria, limiting any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated static stability will remain in place across much of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), inhibiting thunderstorm development over most locales. One exception will be across eastern TX into LA and extreme southwest MS. Here, low-level warm-air/moisture advection will transpire atop a cool surface airmass as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains from the Southern Rockies tomorrow afternoon/evening. Deep-layer ascent will increase through the period, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development likely by late afternoon over Coastal TX, spreading north and east into LA with time. Buoyancy will be elevated, characterized by a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE constrained above 850 mb. While the anticipated large, elongated hodographs would promote enough deep-layer shear to support some hail growth in the stronger storms, buoyancy currently appears too scant to support an organized severe hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated static stability will remain in place across much of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), inhibiting thunderstorm development over most locales. One exception will be across eastern TX into LA and extreme southwest MS. Here, low-level warm-air/moisture advection will transpire atop a cool surface airmass as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains from the Southern Rockies tomorrow afternoon/evening. Deep-layer ascent will increase through the period, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development likely by late afternoon over Coastal TX, spreading north and east into LA with time. Buoyancy will be elevated, characterized by a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE constrained above 850 mb. While the anticipated large, elongated hodographs would promote enough deep-layer shear to support some hail growth in the stronger storms, buoyancy currently appears too scant to support an organized severe hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. ..Hart.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Surface observations, recent fuel analyses, and morning guidance continue to suggest fire weather potential will remain very limited for today across the country. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Surface observations, recent fuel analyses, and morning guidance continue to suggest fire weather potential will remain very limited for today across the country. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning surface analysis places the center of an expansive area of high pressure over MO. This area of high pressure (and its associated continental arctic airmass) is gradually expected to shift eastward throughout the day as shortwave trough progresses across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This evolution will maintain low-level offshore trajectories, with the resulting stable conditions precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is just off the South Texas coast, where surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of a second shortwave trough forecast to move southward through AZ. Increasing low-level moisture convergence is anticipated near this low, with warm-air advection increasing throughout its eastern periphery as well. However, this low is expected to remain well offshore, keeping any deep convection over the western Gulf. Warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorms within any warm-air advection showers that do make it ashore. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/21/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across the CONUS for all of next week. A cold front will move south across the Gulf on Monday. While some moisture recovery will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, another front will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday night and keep moisture offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be minimal and severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across southern Louisiana on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will continue to advance southeast into the northern Gulf on Sunday. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and persist through the morning and early afternoon within a region of isentropic ascent from south-central Louisiana to southeast Louisiana. Strong shear will be present as the mid-level flow strengthens. However, instability will be quite weak. Therefore, some small hail is possible, but larger hail is not expected. By late afternoon to evening, expect most of the thunderstorm activity to move offshore as the surface low develops and moves into the central Gulf. ..Bentley.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, winds will shift to more southerly, bringing warm and dry conditions back to the Southern Plains. However, surface winds will be weak and limit and potential for wildfire spread. A localized region of Elevated fire-weather conditions could occur in portions of central New Mexico, where warm and dry downslope winds are forecast to occur. However, at this time, winds are expected to be below Elevated threshold criteria, limiting any fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... Northwest flow with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will be present across the CONUS on Saturday. One of these troughs will advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Low-level flow will strengthen across the western Gulf with increasing moisture and strengthening isentropic ascent. ...Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana... An increase in convection is expected along the Gulf Coast during the day Saturday and particularly into Saturday night. MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and effective shear around 30-35 knots may result in a few stronger storms. CAPE heavily concentrated within the hail growth zone and a cool boundary layer will support the potential for some hail, but somewhat limited instability may limit the updraft acceleration needed for larger (1.00") hail. If greater instability appears more likely, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed from southeast Texas and into coastal Louisiana. ..Bentley.. 02/21/2025 Read more