SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will shift east across the OH Valley, with an intense upper jet sweeping across the Southeast. As this trough exits the East Coast into Friday morning, a weaker wave will progress out of the Great Basin into the Four Corners states. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will exist over the central and eastern CONUS, providing strong offshore flow over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Weak instability over far southern FL will quickly dissipate as dry air spreads south, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will shift east across the OH Valley, with an intense upper jet sweeping across the Southeast. As this trough exits the East Coast into Friday morning, a weaker wave will progress out of the Great Basin into the Four Corners states. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will exist over the central and eastern CONUS, providing strong offshore flow over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Weak instability over far southern FL will quickly dissipate as dry air spreads south, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 19 13:55:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and localized severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... Overall forecast scenario appears to be evolving as anticipated. Elevated convection over southeast TX/southwest LA will have the best chance at producing marginally severe hail along the eastern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates, sampled upstream by the 00Z FWD sounding. An increasingly predominant cluster convective mode is anticipated with time tonight, limiting the hail threat amid weaker lapse rates with eastern extent across LA. Guidance continues a slightly southward trend to placement of the warm front overnight near the LA coast as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf. With ongoing convection curtailing northward displacement of the stable surface air mass inland, these trends suggest the wind/tornado threats should remain spatially confined along the immediate coast near the MS River Delta. ..Grams.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and localized severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... Overall forecast scenario appears to be evolving as anticipated. Elevated convection over southeast TX/southwest LA will have the best chance at producing marginally severe hail along the eastern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates, sampled upstream by the 00Z FWD sounding. An increasingly predominant cluster convective mode is anticipated with time tonight, limiting the hail threat amid weaker lapse rates with eastern extent across LA. Guidance continues a slightly southward trend to placement of the warm front overnight near the LA coast as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf. With ongoing convection curtailing northward displacement of the stable surface air mass inland, these trends suggest the wind/tornado threats should remain spatially confined along the immediate coast near the MS River Delta. ..Grams.. 02/19/2025 Read more

MD 0116 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190001Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee. Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 36199081 37389042 37878993 38068914 37978804 37858767 37538701 37378687 36828672 36458661 35628715 35118774 35078876 35158957 35399041 35479063 35929094 36109086 36199081 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... In the wake of a cold front exiting the Florida Peninsula, strong surface high pressure (1040+ mb) and an Arctic air mass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Prevalent cold and stable conditions are expected to considerably limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more