SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning surface analysis places the center of an expansive area of high pressure over MO. This area of high pressure (and its associated continental arctic airmass) is gradually expected to shift eastward throughout the day as shortwave trough progresses across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This evolution will maintain low-level offshore trajectories, with the resulting stable conditions precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is just off the South Texas coast, where surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of a second shortwave trough forecast to move southward through AZ. Increasing low-level moisture convergence is anticipated near this low, with warm-air advection increasing throughout its eastern periphery as well. However, this low is expected to remain well offshore, keeping any deep convection over the western Gulf. Warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorms within any warm-air advection showers that do make it ashore. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/21/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry airmass will be in place across the CONUS for all of next week. A cold front will move south across the Gulf on Monday. While some moisture recovery will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, another front will move into the northern Gulf on Wednesday night and keep moisture offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be minimal and severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across southern Louisiana on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will continue to advance southeast into the northern Gulf on Sunday. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and persist through the morning and early afternoon within a region of isentropic ascent from south-central Louisiana to southeast Louisiana. Strong shear will be present as the mid-level flow strengthens. However, instability will be quite weak. Therefore, some small hail is possible, but larger hail is not expected. By late afternoon to evening, expect most of the thunderstorm activity to move offshore as the surface low develops and moves into the central Gulf. ..Bentley.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, winds will shift to more southerly, bringing warm and dry conditions back to the Southern Plains. However, surface winds will be weak and limit and potential for wildfire spread. A localized region of Elevated fire-weather conditions could occur in portions of central New Mexico, where warm and dry downslope winds are forecast to occur. However, at this time, winds are expected to be below Elevated threshold criteria, limiting any fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With much of the U.S. predominantly experiencing strong surface high pressure, colder temperatures, and weaker surface winds, any fire-weather concerns will remain low throughout the day, despite some of the Southern Plains and Southeastern U.S. experiencing dry conditions. ..Halbert.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... Northwest flow with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will be present across the CONUS on Saturday. One of these troughs will advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Low-level flow will strengthen across the western Gulf with increasing moisture and strengthening isentropic ascent. ...Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana... An increase in convection is expected along the Gulf Coast during the day Saturday and particularly into Saturday night. MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and effective shear around 30-35 knots may result in a few stronger storms. CAPE heavily concentrated within the hail growth zone and a cool boundary layer will support the potential for some hail, but somewhat limited instability may limit the updraft acceleration needed for larger (1.00") hail. If greater instability appears more likely, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed from southeast Texas and into coastal Louisiana. ..Bentley.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or stable conditions remain prevalent across the U.S., and models indicate little change through this period. Deeper mid-level troughing is forecast to continue to progress away from the north Atlantic Seaboard, leaving split westerlies in its wake, downstream of large-scale mid-level ridging building inland of the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Within this regime, one short wave perturbation, emerging from the Great Basin, is forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies, toward the Mid South vicinity, while another digs through the Four Corners states. The lead impulse will spread across the slowly modifying remnants of expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies, as well as much of the Gulf Basin. Downstream of the trailing impulse, it appears that a developing southerly return flow will contribute to moistening off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary layer. Across the northwestern Gulf and inland of coastal areas, it appears that the moisture return will be elevated above a substantial cold surface-based layer, and beneath relatively warm and capping layers further aloft. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or stable conditions remain prevalent across the U.S., and models indicate little change through this period. Deeper mid-level troughing is forecast to continue to progress away from the north Atlantic Seaboard, leaving split westerlies in its wake, downstream of large-scale mid-level ridging building inland of the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Within this regime, one short wave perturbation, emerging from the Great Basin, is forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies, toward the Mid South vicinity, while another digs through the Four Corners states. The lead impulse will spread across the slowly modifying remnants of expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies, as well as much of the Gulf Basin. Downstream of the trailing impulse, it appears that a developing southerly return flow will contribute to moistening off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary layer. Across the northwestern Gulf and inland of coastal areas, it appears that the moisture return will be elevated above a substantial cold surface-based layer, and beneath relatively warm and capping layers further aloft. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S tonight. ...01Z Update... Weak boundary-layer destabilization has occurred beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temps of -24 to -26 C) now overspreading southeastern Utah/western Colorado and adjacent portions of northern Arizona/New Mexico. Although forecast soundings (and the recent Grand Junction raob) appear marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, there has been none evident in lightning detection to this point. With the onset of boundary-layer cooling to the west of the Continental Divide during the next couple of hours, and the gradual eastward advection of the cold core above a cold/stable low-level environment to the east of the Divide this evening/overnight, any potential for lightning that currently exists should become more negligible. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S tonight. ...01Z Update... Weak boundary-layer destabilization has occurred beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temps of -24 to -26 C) now overspreading southeastern Utah/western Colorado and adjacent portions of northern Arizona/New Mexico. Although forecast soundings (and the recent Grand Junction raob) appear marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, there has been none evident in lightning detection to this point. With the onset of boundary-layer cooling to the west of the Continental Divide during the next couple of hours, and the gradual eastward advection of the cold core above a cold/stable low-level environment to the east of the Divide this evening/overnight, any potential for lightning that currently exists should become more negligible. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential is expected to remain low across the CONUS through the middle of next week as a large area of surface high pressure remains entrenched over the central U.S. through this weekend. Critical fire weather concerns may eventually emerge over the Plains by Day 7/Wednesday as a lee surface low deepens. However, poor run-to-run model consistency and associated uncertainty regarding the timing/location of key features at this longer time range precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 20 21:10:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 20 21:10:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large area of surface high pressure resides over the central and eastern United States and is currently centered over the central Great Plains. Dry/cold offshore flow into the Gulf and Atlantic will maintain an airmass hostile to thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather conditions are expected to remain low across the CONUS tomorrow (Day 2/Friday). Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more