SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CSV TO 45 SSW LOZ TO 35 SSW LOZ TO 25 S LOZ TO 30 SE LOZ TO 30 S JKL. ..EDWARDS..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-095-133-193-070240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN LETCHER PERRY TNC001-009-013-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-129-145- 151-155-163-173-179-070240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN UNION WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070240- Read more

WW 4 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 070030Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 6 21:12:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061921Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Long, straight hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee. The limiting factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Low-level clouds have been persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing destabilization across the area. Nevertheless, with some additional clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733 36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693 35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, it appears that there will be little change across much of the contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into central tier states. Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity into Northeast by late Saturday night. It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. This is likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Initially stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic, the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of the wave. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains problematic concerning convective potential. Strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather potential, given sufficient destabilization. However, regardless of the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress destabilization. At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing lightning. But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible at this time. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 6 17:56:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from some potential for a couple of weak thunderstorms across parts of the northern Rockies vicinity, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that broad mid/upper ridging will be maintained across the subtropical latitudes, from northern Mexico through the western Atlantic, and a prominent influence across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic latitudes, of the eastern Pacific. To the east of the northeastern Pacific ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to linger across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains. Beneath this regime, guidance indicates potential for modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado through areas near/south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity. There appears better consensus among the models, particularly the ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS/GFS. But this output may still be having issues handling ongoing reinforcing cold intrusions to the lee of Rockies. The NAM and Rapid Refresh remain slower to erode the colder boundary-layer across the Texas South Plains into central Oklahoma vicinity, and are slower and weaker with the evolving surface wave. Otherwise, a gradual erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of the entrenched cold air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to westerly return flow across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into southern Mid Atlantic. However, it appears that associated moisture emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for ascent and warm, capping layers aloft. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Great Plains... Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of the Pacific Northwest into northern Great Plains during this period. However, based on the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the calibrated High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance might be too aggressive with probabilities for thunderstorms across the eastern Great Basin into northern Rockies vicinity for Friday afternoon and evening. Instability will probably be sufficient to support scattered to numerous snow and rain showers. However, whether the boundary layer in higher elevations warms enough, or convection initiating in lower elevations deepens through sufficiently cold layers aloft, to support an appreciable risk for lightning remains a bit unclear. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more