SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

MD 0079 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of New England and eastern NY Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090301Z - 090700Z SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour should persist into the early morning across eastern New York into parts of New England. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and surface observations, along with recent reports, indicate multiple swaths of heavy snow are ongoing across parts of the Northeast. The most probable area for the highest rates should exist over southern New England, just to the east-northeast of the occluding transition zone between snow and sleet. OKX dual-pol radar has sampled enhanced KDP below the dendritic growth zone, indicative of heavy snow. 21Z SREF and 00Z HREF guidance support potential for 2 in/hr bursts across parts of CT/MA/RI, until enough warming near 700 mb occurs for sleet and/or mid-level drying advects into the dendritic growth layer during the early morning. Farther north, a more west/east-oriented deformation zone from Lake Ontario to the Capital District should pivot east during the next several hours. Snowfall rates in this band should more steadily hold around 1 in/hr as it spreads across southern parts of VT/NH/ME. ..Grams.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 43756998 42667047 41946973 41196992 40967253 41477340 41877393 42907461 43477457 43717386 43907156 43756998 Read more

MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 082321Z - 090315Z SUMMARY...Leading corridor of winter storm across the Northeast will produce a heavy snow band before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain from the southwest. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving swath of winter mixed precip will spread across the Northeast and southern New England states through the rest of this evening. Strengthening low to mid-level ascent will yield a band of heavy snow along the leading periphery of this precip plume where the thermodynamic profile remains entirely below freezing. The initial swath should emanate out of the north-central PA/southwest NY vicinity, where heavy snow has been observed, and should expand east-southeastward along the NY to PA/NJ border area over the next few hours. A longer-lasting deformation zone within the cold-conveyor region should develop east from the Lake Erie vicinity and move across much of southern NY during the next several hours. A highly consistent signal persists across daytime guidance with snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The southern portion of the heavy snow swath to about the Upper DE and Lower Hudson Valleys should mix with/transition to sleet/freezing rain later in the evening. ..Grams.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40677327 41357478 41657603 41777768 42117911 42547929 43117880 43417525 43287361 42927212 42647131 42087094 41517107 40927210 40677327 Read more

MD 0078 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...far northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and far southern portions of New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 082324Z - 090330Z SUMMARY...Snow should overspread the region in the next few hours. With time, the snow should transition to sleet and even freezing rain before ending later this evening/overnight. DISCUSSION...An area of mixed winter precipitation continues across western and central Pennsylvania this evening. This precipitation area developed/is being maintained on the nose of strong low-level warm-air advection across a deep layer. Over the next few hours this warm-air advection and associated isentropic ascent will overspread eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Surface temperatures in the upper-20Fs and low-30Fs, coupled with dewpoint temperatures in the upper-teens and low-20Fs, yield wet-bulb temperatures below 32F. Thermal profiles across the region will initially support all snow. However, as the warm-air advection warms the low-levels, the maximum temperature in the column should increase above 32F yielding sleet and potentially eventually freezing rain before precipitation ends from southwest to northeast. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39177553 39527647 40417671 41247631 41547565 41477463 41017363 39987304 39137378 38907485 39177553 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning. This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be removed. ..Darrow.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning. This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be removed. ..Darrow.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 8 22:04:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0076 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHERN WEST-VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...northwest to south-central Pennsylvania into far northern West-Virginia/Maryland Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 082042Z - 090045Z SUMMARY...Snow transitioning to a combination of sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread northwest to south-central Pennsylvania and far northeast West Virginia/northwest Maryland through the late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a swath of stratiform precipitation overspreading OH with an additional precipitation band associated with strengthening isentropic ascent developing across WV into northwest VA/western MD. Over the past hour, surface observations and mPING reports from north-central OH have reported a mixture of freezing rain (with one-hour accumulations up to 0.03 inches) and sleet as surface temperatures wet-bulb down to the upper 20s/low 30s. Slightly cooler conditions are noted downstream across PA where surface temperatures are largely below freezing with dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s. Initially sub-freezing temperatures throughout the column over PA should promote mainly snow as the initial p-type as precipitation begins overspreading the region. With time, strengthening mid-level warm advection will result in a 1-4 C warm nose within the 850-700 mb layer. Concurrently, wet-bulb cooling within the lowest kilometer will maintain sub-freezing temperatures near the surface. These thermodynamic trends will promote a transition from mainly snow to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, similar to recent upstream observations. The propensity for one precipitation type over the other will largely depend on the strength of the warm nose aloft, which varies across recent deterministic solutions leading to limited confidence in coverage of sleet/freezing rain and accumulation amounts. Regardless, moderate to heavy precipitation rates - especially under any embedded convective elements - may result in periods of moderate sleet and/or freezing rain. ..Moore.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 39897939 40447889 40747894 40927924 40927988 41118051 41578058 41908037 42017987 42047877 42037851 41987816 41937785 41567717 41187668 40747624 40427611 40087610 39897628 39777661 39547796 39487856 39467902 39547937 39697946 39897939 Read more

MD 0075 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 081746Z - 082245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds. This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft, and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface. Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes. Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible. ..Moore.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41538171 41628148 41638112 41498087 41158069 40818063 40608068 40508089 40388127 40288194 40258286 40288366 40378450 40558534 40838623 41098637 41498633 41818603 41918551 41828398 41718339 41448268 41418245 41478206 41538171 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more