SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more